Focus Gambling Scene Explained
All quality gambling scenes, whether strictly sports betting or not, the focus of the film or a short aside, will be included/considered. In the third installment of our series, we steer back into the comedy aisle (sort of) for a scene from the Keanu Reeves-led Hardball released in 2001. Guest Post by Jeff Yang One of the most beautiful things about Crazy Rich Asians is how it refuses to explain many of its most intrinsically Asian elements. That lack of training wheels is intentional: As director Jon M. Chu told me, 'We didn't want to give people an excuse to think of this world as some kind of obscure, exotic fantasyland - this is a real place, with real culture, history. “Online sports betting or casinos offered by operators outside of regulatory structures explicitly authorized by U.S. State lawmakers are likely in violation of gambling laws in most states and multiple federal laws (e.g., IGBA, the Wire Act, UIGEA).
As I’m sure many of you are aware, this semester we spent time learning about priming and gambling in our larger discussion on how individuals make decisions. These discussions led me to remember a clip from a movie I saw a couple of years ago. The following clip is from the movie Focus (2015). The movie follows an unlikely duo and con artists played by Will Smith and Margot Robie. For context of this scene Will Smith’s character is trying to pull of his biggest con in years. If he succeeds he is expected to make millions. He and his team have picked out this wealthy man to profit from and set themselves up to try and con the man at the Super bowl. Prior to this scene, he has had the man participate in multiple bets, each one having more value than the first. With each bet the other man won, getting more excited about the gambling. The man begs to play one more bet, walking into the trap Will Smith’s character had set for him.
This clip illustrates what we’ve studied this semester, that priming can directly though subconsciously influence our decision making. Though dramatized and exaggerated for a film, the principle that we can be manipulated by unattended auditory and visual stimuli is completely true. Will’s character trusted this effect so confidently he used it to pull off a giant con.
Like the themes explored and inflated in the scene in the film, Focus. A study completed by the University of Warwick also examined the effect of priming on gambling behavior. During the study, participants were presented with four colored doors. The first group of three doors was paired with an image of cartoon fruit similar those that appear on slot machines. These doors had a guaranteed outcome of 0 points, 40, or 80. The fourth and final door had a 50% chance of a 20 point or 60-point gain. Occasionally, the fourth door was primed with cartoon fruit representing and reminding the participant of a past win or loss in the experiment. Being primed and reminded of the past win or loss then affected their choice.
Focus Gambling Scene Explained Movies
The study concluded that when individuals were “reminded” or primed of previous wins they were 15% more likely to gamble and select the risky option. Additionally, being reminded of a loss did not change their gambling behavior. Dr. Elliot Ludwig states that this result is due to our memories being extremely influential in our decision-making process, even subconsciously. For example, he asserts that people do not take risks when the experience is completely new but will take risks if we have had previous memories of a similar experience. His research published in the Journal of Experimental Psychology: General noted that in casinos there are constantly stimuli priming an individual to be more likely to gamble. Stimuli like the whirring of a slot machine suggest that another person has recently won and thus this persuades the individual that they too could win. The unattended stimuli, the priming, convinces the individual to make the risky decision to gamble. This research and the clip from Focus demonstrate that the effects of priming on our decision making and behavior are often subtle but can have large effects.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/02/150203103911.htm
Profitable bettors come from all walks of life. Yet, if you are in the actuarial profession, you are well ahead of the curve. Here’s what Dominic Cortis, an associate actuary and current researcher in the betting markets, has to say about how actuaries can make a profit as a bettor.
Focus Gambling Scene Explained Games
What area were you working in before you started your research in sports analytics, and how did you decide to focus on the betting markets?
I have mainly worked in higher education, with a short stint in the actuarial profession. While working with the Insurance and Pensions Supervisions Unit with the Maltese financial regulator (MFSA), I was involved in collating industry stats, checking the adequacy of solvency reserves and preparing for the new insurance regulation.
While watching a Euro 2012 match, Dr. Frank Neumann, a senior colleague was asking me questions about the betting markets. I couldn't answer most of them, but in a eureka moment I decided to test an idea revolving around applying financial techniques to the betting markets.
At that point I knew that my PhD would take a more sports betting focus rather than a traditional finance one. The current focus of my research is developing and testing a solvency framework for bookmakers.
What are the fundamental similarities in what you were doing then and what you do now?
In both financial and betting modelling; you decide a set of assumptions on which you build your model. These make or break the model, so a lot of care needs to be made with respect to choosing, testing and updating these.
The categories of experts working in both industries are also very similar. You find individuals who focus on the intricacies of a model to develop sophisticated models that provide an edge, others that focus on price movements, and more that focus on the quality of data.
Both fields are focused on measuring risk and finding value, but are there any aspects fundamentally different?
A bet is after all a binary-option and hence can be classified as a derivative. Furthermore, I consider insurance and betting as basically the same, except for one key feature – 'insurable interest'.
When purchasing insurance, one must have 'insurable interest', that is have something to lose, if an outcome occurs. The concept is the opposite for a bet; a player of a particular team cannot purchase a bet on his team losing a match. A bet is made to win an amount while an insurance is made to place you in the same position should something occur.
'When purchasing insurance, one must have 'insurable interest'. The concept is the opposite for a bet. A bet is made to win an amount, while an insurance is made to place you in the same position should something occur'
That is, if I purchase a contract that pays me a sum on Queen's Elizabeth's death, I am betting. If Prince Philip does it, then he is purchasing insurance.
This leads to less scope for asymmetric information in sports and betting. When purchasing life insurance, I may not tell the insurer that I have a health condition, if not asked.
The insurer, on the other hand, may have sophisticated models that give them a better estimate of what the likelihood and severity of certain outcomes are. This leads to one party having better and/or more information. The extent of this difference is much lower in betting markets at the time of writing.
The three key items to predict in finance are the probability, size (severity) and timing. Take insuring against a catastrophe, for example. The extent of the damage may range from a few hundred to billions of dollars.
One would also be interested in the timing of such an event so as to have investments that can be liquidated accordingly. There is also significant uncertainty over claims development over several years following an event.
Yet, in betting, we are less interested in the severity and timing, since most bets are short term.
Do you think an actuary is more likely to become a profitable sports bettor and why?
Actuaries are experts in risk and are trained to ask questions and build models. I think this gives an edge over the traditional bettor or the modeler who strictly focuses on the maths.
Furthermore, actuaries are often involved in interpreting results from a range of sources and presenting them to a non-expert audience. This ability, essential in a consulting actuary, is also very useful when trying to work out what biases in the betting population can be usefully exploited in betting.
What advice would you give to an actuary aspiring to apply their knowledge in sports betting to make money?
It is truly enjoyable to apply actuarial knowledge in sports betting. If you read through my strategy articles, you might as well recognise the influence of an actuarial mind. As with any betting suggestion, treat it as a fun exercise!
The interviewee would like to thank Nick Foster for his helpful insight. Nick Foster is a qualified actuary and lecturer in actuarial sciences at the University of Leicester, where he is Programme Director for the BSc Mathematics and Actuarial Science. He writes at www.weknow0.co.uk, on a range of pensions and economics-related topics.